Policymakers must strike an important balance between reducing emissions today, while also supporting the continuing development and piloting of new technologies and next-generation fuels.Mobility clearly is essential to economic growth, but in our carbon-based world moving people from place to place exacts a steep price.Ĭonsider just the United States. Additionally, technology-neutral policy standards, like zero emissions vehicle requirements, are useful policy levers. Many of these technologies are expensive or untested at scale, pointing to the need for public-sector investments in research and development to spur private-sector innovation. Low-carbon alternative fuels such as bio-based fuels, hydrogen, or synthetic fuels made of carbon dioxide, are likely routes for decarbonization in these modes of transport. The low energy density of batteries means that electrification is not a viable option for airplanes or ships. Long-distance trucking is more difficult expansion of the electricity grid to accommodate the high load of rapid charging is an important step. Heavy-duty road transport includes many types of vehicles and some of these, such as buses, delivery vehicles, and drayage trucks at ports, are relatively easy to electrify. Several countries have now developed heavy-duty vehicle fuel efficiency standards, including the European Union, Mexico, Japan, the United States, Argentina, and Canada.ģ Emerging technological opportunities expand possibilities. Using today’s fuels, efficiencies can be gleaned through upgrading to more efficient vehicles and route efficiencies such as freight corridors. For these reasons, heavy transport still remains reliant on oil, with the International Energy Agency estimating that oil demand in aviation will increase more than 50% by 2040, and 25% in trucking. In aviation and shipping, there are often no re-fueling options mid-trip. In heavy-duty transport - such as trucking, shipping, and aviation - moving heavy goods or significant numbers of people long distances make the energy density of the fuel important, as the fuel must be carried along with the load. Ideal transportation fuels are energy-dense, meaning they contain a great deal of energy per unit of weight or volume. Sources: World Resources Institute’s CAIT emissions data and OECD country delineations.Ģ Barriers to decarbonizing heavy transport persist. Transportation sector data by country, excluding aviation and shipping, 2016. The figure below shows the increasing share of transportation sector greenhouse gas emissions in countries outside the OECD over time. Although the coronavirus pandemic brought significant declines in transportation emissions, as economic activity resumes, demand is again expected to rise, particularly in the developing world. Further, transportation emissions have more than doubled globally since 1970, and heavy-duty transport is among the fastest-growing sectors. Pre-pandemic, transport made up 29% of global primary energy use and 25% of global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions. Transportation accounts for approximately one-quarter of global greenhouse gas emissions, and emissions continue to rise. Several observations emerge:ġ Global transportation emissions continue to grow. In new Brookings research, Samantha Gross examines key challenges to decarbonizing heavy transport, including heavy-duty freight, maritime, and aviation. However, underlying fundamentals of the transport sector have not changed, and in the United States, as states slowly lifted restrictions in May and June, road, aviation, and shipping transportation emissions began to rise once again. As the coronavirus pandemic persists, it remains to be seen how quickly economic activity and pre-pandemic transportation trends re-emerge, particularly in hard-hit countries like the United States, Brazil, and India. Meanwhile, freight transport declined somewhat, while passenger aviation demand plummeted. In areas with tight lockdowns, road transport saw declines as high as 50% to 75% in the spring. In 2020, COVID-19-induced shutdowns led to rapid declines in transportation emissions, as people stopped commuting and travel, and many businesses were forced to close.
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